 PSS NEWS JANUARY - MARCH 2006
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We are embarking on a new era. The next forty years will be unlike anything our culture and our country has seen. And we have no idea now what all of the ramifications will be.
Just as elementary schools were dramatically affected in the 50's, and colleges were affected in the 60's and 70's this change will have enormous consequences for educational institutions. Just as the composition and character workplace was dramatically altered in the 80's and 90's, this change will cause new directions in the delivery of goods and services, health care, forms of transportation, recreation and many other aspects of our society, We will see new institutional structures, new forms of employment, perhaps different types of government.
The next several decades will see fundamental shifts. And what is now just building as a wave will be upon us with the proportions of a tsunami. In the coming decades, we will see this manifested in our communities and our neighborhoods, our housing stock and how it is configured and combined with other uses and functions. We have a whole new set of expectations and demands being formed by a different make-up of our population.
No longer are we an economy and a society fueled by expanding families. The number of households is rapidly rising, but their size is rapidly falling. The last five decades have been marked by an outward expansion across the landscape with families in search of the American Dream: a large, free-standing house on a large lot. While not altogether disappearing, that singular dream is being supplanted by a myriad of other preferences.
The New American Family
For some time, we Americans have held on to a notion of the typical family: two adults with two children. That ideal - the nuclear family - is rapidly diminishing. Less than 25% of households now fit that type.
For several decades now the number of people per household has steadily declined, while the number of households has steadily increased. Census data has been indicating that the fastest growing segments of our society fall within one of these groups: singles, single-parent households, seniors, or "start-up" households -- that is young couples - married or unmarried, straight or gay.
The groupings now make-up at least half the population. In other 10 years or so, they will approach 60% of the population. In recent surveys, relatively few of these people have preferences for places to live that match the previous generations. They are looking for types of homes and types of neighborhoods that are entirely different.
Of these groups, let's take a look at one segment - seniors.
Right now, people over 60 years old constitute 15-16% of our population - approximately one in seven. In another 15 years, as the "baby boom" generation ages, this will grow to between 20 and 25% -- close to one in four.
We are simply living longer. Because of nutrition, exercise, preventative medicine, curative medicine, cleaner air and water, and a host of other reasons, we have almost doubled longevity in a hundred years. Not long ago, it was very uncommon for people to live into their 90's. Not anymore. Both men and women can expect to live long lives, perhaps 20-30 years past what we have traditionally considered to be retirement.
Although we may be living longer, our faculties such as visual acuity, hand-eye coordination, and responsiveness still decline. Fatalities attributed to people over age 70 go up exponentially. (There is a corresponding set of date for drivers under 20, but that is a different story.) At some point, insurance companies will no longer tolerate paying out big claims and will force people to relinquish their drivers licenses. Even now, many elderly people have their licenses revoked by testing agencies, as they fail their renewal exams. Simply because of the carnage on the road, some states might start setting a maximum driving age.
Whatever the reason, more elderly people will be finding themselves with simply no access to an automobile. Just as we have no such access during the first fifteen years of our lives, we may be in the same state for the last fifteen years. Some people are realizing this and even now are seeking choices in locations and forms of living that will enable them to be independent.
I submit that few people who in the baby boom group will find it acceptable to be "warehoused" in retirement centers, especially those tucked away in remote locations. This segregating of our most senior people is debilitating, insulting and forces dependency on corporate or institutional care-givers. The emerging generation of elderly people will by far prefer to live in real communities, in real neighborhoods, on real streets - with many, many choices close at hand. People will want to be surrounded by arts and culture, lively parks and public spaces, recreation, shopping, and health care.
People will begin to consider what they will need to have within a reasonably short walking distance. Some very sharp and prescient people are already engaged such personal planning. The impact this alone will have on re-structuring communities is enormous.
Consider this as well: people are NOT retiring. At least in the conventional sense of ceasing to be employed. They might officially retire from one job, but soon take another, perhaps part-time. We can already see this in certain service businesses where a few decades ago positions filled by teenagers are now taken by seniors. And employers like this. Seniors are responsible, stable, savvy, sensitive to customers and stay loyal to a company.
But as seniors acquire less automobile-related mobility, they will increasingly choose places where they can walk to work, or perhaps take a short ride on public transportation to reach the job. It is unlikely that elderly people will tolerate the long, exhausting commutes they might have endured earlier in their lives.
So what we have is a fascinating convergence of values between widely different age groups- a phenomenon not seen before in American society. People who are relatively young and people who are relatively old prefer to live in places that are lively, offer many choices, packed with arts and culture and entertainment. Already, the many and myriad espresso bars and bistros that are popping up in our cities are appealing to both young and the old. These "Third Places" as identified by Ray Oldenberg are valued by many people for their sociability and casual atmosphere. We may soon see the rise of English pub-like places that combine food and drink and camaraderie.
There is already an interesting version of this occurring in some quarters. Developer Ron Sher in Seattle has discovered that he can provide places for people to hang out while providing goods and services. His "Third Place Books" store located in Lake Forest Park just north of Seattle offers a comfortable setting in which to buy and read books. Its library-like arrangement of tables and chairs and over-stuffed sofas is surrounded by kiosks of vendors selling coffee and inexpensive meals. People start arriving at 7am and the place stays busy until midnight. I suspect he could keep the place open twenty fours hours if he chose to.
Clearly, people of widely varying ages are seeing the value of spending time in social settings. Perhaps we are simply getting weary of the low-grade, uninspired twaddle that has been dished out for too many years on television. Many people are yearning for the
stimulation found in public places.
An interesting barometer of this change is to be found in Pioneer Courthouse Square in the middle of downtown Portland, Oregon. On some nights, 20-somethings lounge about listening to the music of local rock bands. On other evenings, decked-out seniors can be seen square dancing late into the night. We are beginning to relearn the pleasures of enjoying one another's company in the public realm. We need not escape the city, indeed we are embracing it.
Density as Destiny
Since the early 1950's, American's have viewed density as something like a four-letter word. This attitude might have had a rightful origin in previous patterns of urban development in which big cities were marked first by block after block of crowded tenements and - later - by repetitive complexes of public housing. Indeed, much planning and public health literature of the early Twentieth Century dwelled upon conditions of "overcrowding" in cities. Even in mid-century, it was popular for writers to cite the Calhoun rat experiment as evidence that people living close together would cause social disorder, crime, and even murderous behavior.
Such cynical observations reached their zenith at the same time as many American cities experienced record incidents of criminal acts, deterioration of public infrastructure, and graffiti run amok on buildings, transit vehicles, and bridge structures. So imbedded in many people's minds was urban disintegration that even years after New York City's subway system found a paint that prevented the adherence of graffiti, Hollywood persisted in showing city scenes of people riding in cars covered with wild and obscene scrawls.
Indeed, so much American mythology has been focused upon the supposed evils of the city and the degradation of the lower classes when packed into hovels that it took until the early 60's and Jane Jacob's path-breaking book The Death and Life of American Cities to begin to dispel the notion of density and undesirable. Even now, many citizens equate even moderate density development with crime and drugs.
So powerful was the idea that density was to be purged from urban areas, that many cities literally eviscerated themselves by clearing away large sections of housing. American culture has had a persistent strain of "anti-urbanism" - perhaps reaching back to our Puritan roots in which public life was full of strictures as temptations to sin were lurking around every corner.
Although it is questionable whether there was actually any deliberate national policy to disperse density and de-populate cities, the effect of the National Defense Highway Act, which created the interstate system of freeways, coupled with the low-interest VA/FHA home loans, and the deduction of mortgage interest from income taxes did just that. Many middle class citizens who decry "social engineering" do not seem to realize that these programs were immense and unprecedented methods of inducing behavior.
But now, fifty years later, several generations of anti-urban biases are crumbling. So swift has the sea-change been that in some places it has been almost breathtaking. Certain "first-tier" cities have seen entire neighborhoods surrounding the downtown transformed in barely more than a decade. Places like River North in Chicago, Lower Downtown in Denver, and the Pearl District in Portland, Oregon have become filled with renovated and new buildings containing higher density housing. But in such bigger cities, such change might have been expected. Less known are the many smaller communities where similar transformations are taking place.
For example, Springfield, Missouri - once a railroad town dotted with grain elevators and stockyards - saw its downtown decline during the 70's and 80's to the point where empty department stores, vast parking lots, and abandoned rail lines became its new identity. In the last several years, however, the place is packed with classy, locally-owned restaurants and cafes, coffee bars and night spots, and specialty shops. Developers cannot convert older Victorian-era buildings into lofts fast enough to meet the demand. Even new loft buildings are being planned.
Both Spokane and Tacoma in Washington State have seen similar changes as entire new neighborhoods have sprung up with renovations and new construction. In the last five years, Tacoma has seen almost 1000 units opened up in blocks surrounding its commercial core - some on lands that had previously been industrial. In Spokane several developers such as Ron Wells and Rob Brewster are fast creating new real estate empires of urban development, including retail, hotels and housing.
This "rediscovery of the center," was noted early by the prescient and late William H. Whyte in his book City. But Whyte did not foresee the spectacular increase in the role of arts and culture in central cities - a demand that is strongly associated with the people who are choosing downtown neighborhoods rather than suburbs.
Density now may be seen as positively correlated with a city's cultural and artistic status, not merely with its financial stature. Those cities with increasingly strong and vibrant economies, as well as flourishing arenas of education and arts are precisely those that are seeing high density development. So the cycle has begun to reach full-circle. Density is again seen a beneficial, appealing, and in demand.
And this increasingly dynamic trend differs from previous "back to the city" movements that resulted in gentrification. Initial and well-known places like SoHo in New York, Adams-Morgan in Washington D.C., and Beacon Hill in Boston essentially involved a rapid succession of populations. Early "urban pioneers," whether artists or minorities, were eventually pushed out by rising rents and property values.
Now, new or re-discovered inner city neighborhoods hold people with a wide array of incomes, ethnicities and lifestyles. Often this new urban soup is rich with different flavors marked as it is by different languages, cultures, and values. It is not uncommon for streets to be filled with people chattering away in foreign tongues or running restaurants of exotic origins from Cuban to African to Indian. It is clear that close-in districts are once again welcoming people from countries and cultures all over the world as the have done in the past. We are re-discovering not only the virtues of density but of diversity as well.
Regionalism?
Trick question, what do Metro Transit, Pierce Transit, Sound Transit, Kitsap Transit, Community Transit, Kitsap Transit and Washington State Ferries, have in common? Answer, just about nothing.
We operate under a system where a world-class region with a reputation for progressive governance, is served by at least seven transit agencies that don't coordinate routing or equipment use, don't coordinate equipment purchases or standards, each of whom is responsible to a different governmental entity, each of which competes for funding and where each has independent maintenance and administration. In an era where state and local governments have been forced to implement new ways to deliver services while reducing costs, this constitutes a glaring case of mismanagement if not outright malfeasance. There is no doubt that it represents a failure of regionalism and a loss of the benefits it could provide.
This problem is not limited to mass transit:
The only noteworthy exception to this rather dismal record, is in the development of highways. The authority to appropriate and program large sums of money for roads is vested in two agencies having truly regional scope and oversight, the Washington State Department of Transportation and the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC).
Having painted this picture, what is the solution? The first couple of decades of my career in community development was spent in and around Minneapolis. In the 1970's, the Minnesota Legislature, with a good deal of foresight, realized that the true urban region included both Minneapolis and St. Paul and dozens of suburban and exurban cities covering a seven county area. It diminished the roles of individual counties in provision of regional services and created the Metropolitan Council (think of it as a PSRC with actual authority on a variety of regional issues including growth management). It also caused the creation of a number of regional providers of major services who come together under the planning oversight of the Metro Council. These include highways, transit, airports, sanitary sewer, regional recreation and to a lesser extent, human and health services. No it isn't perfect. There have been changes over the years to make the Metro Council more representative and there will always be a push/pull over local control issues. Yet, whatever its faults, it is clearly an improvement over the status quo. The Minnesota model offers a blueprint for the direction we need to embark upon.
Recaps of the Fall '05 APA Brown Bags
City Redevelopment & Transit Connectivity
Fixing the Condo Liability Problem
Due to unfamiliar new energy regulations and building materials, and the entry of many single-family homebuilders into the condo market, many 90s-vintage condos had moisture-related problems. Insurers lost their shirts then got out of the market. Construction of mid-priced condos has plummeted. Recent legislative fixes (RCW 64.35, 64.50, and 64.55) include additional inspections and arbitration of homeowner association/builder disputes. These fixes should help in the long run, but insurers will remain cautious until the benefits are proven. Further legislation is unlikely. Apparently, we just have to hope it works. In the meantime, apartments and single-family attached units avoid the insurance problem because attorneys have no incentive to facilitate lawsuits for individual landowners. Apartments may successfully convert to condos later on. Thanks to speakers Scott Hildebrandt of the Master Builder Association of King & Snohomish Counties, Jeffrey Hamlett of Callison Architects, and Jay Soroka of Acordia Insurance.
Preserving Steep Slopes as Open Space
Engineering geologist Donald Tubbs explained the types of surfacial and substrate slides common to the Puget Sound area and the geology that causes them. He also reviewed the topographical, soils, geologic, and groundwater factors that indicate hazard. Landslide hazards have been mapped in some areas. LIDAR has enabled more exact hazards maps. In the Seattle area, many slides have occurred where Esperance sand overlay Lawton clay.
"Downtown is everybody's neighborhood," says Councilmember Peter Steinbrueck. Beginning with a history of Seattle's plans for its Downtown, and progressing through a photo-essay of the Belltown area, Peter covered the burning issues of urban form, open space, and pedestrian orientation. Seattle's Downtown has only a fifth the housing units per job as Vancouver's Downtown, so new housing needs to be a priority. An elementary school is needed to attract families with kids. Peter opposes street-grade parking, favors green streets. Plain-speaking and enthusiastic, architect as well as politician, Peter clearly inspired the fifty planners and community activists assembled to hear him in the Seattle's new City Hall.
Tree Retention & Preservation Liz Ellis, Seattle Department of Transportation (DOT), organized City of Seattle staffers plus a developer, an arborist, and a landscape architect to create this half-day extravaganza. Seattle's tree canopy is a meager 15%, and significant trees are often lost despite the best intentions. But their Green Streets and similar programs are making a difference. DOT and the Department of Planning and Development coordinate on saving trees along streets and in new developments. Professionally, the players are planners, arborists, developers, and inspectors. The codes pertaining to trees are complex and dispersed among many code titles. Speakers emphasized the flexibility they offer through such means as design departures, and the physical adaptations necessary in a highly urban environment, like barriers to protect trees during construction. Steve Speidel noted that saving too many trees can cause sprawl; sometimes it is better to remove them and plant anew. Steve also warned planners to consider the pre-existing layers of regulations when adopting new tree regulations. Thanks to speakers Liz Ellis, Bill Ames, Barbara Gray, and Paul Janos from the City of Seattle, John Tellefson of Seascape Homes, Stephen Speidel from R. W. Thorpe & Associates and David Reich of City Foresters. 
Announcing the Puget Sound Section APA Winter '06 Brown Bag Series of Continuing Education Come to the FREE session you need to do your job better! APA-subsidized lunches, only $2! RSVP to Steve Ladd, ladds@ci.bonney-lake.wa.us or (253) 447-4350.
Affordable housingA half-day APA Brown Bag Time Place Program
Student Session at the 2005 Washington Chapter APA Conference The 2005 Washington Chapter APA Conference was a particularly special one for the graduate students in the College of Urban Design and Planning at the University of Washington. Not only did the Puget Sound Chapter of the Washington APA pay for 10 of our students to attend the conference, we were able to engineer our own session this year under the auspices of 'Professional Development'. Based on much that we have leaned in our core curriculum at the University of Washington, experiences in our own community internships, and what we felt professionals were interested in learning more about, we chose the general topic planning in politically challenging times. The student session was titled Planning in Politically Charged Environments - Moving Forward in Spite of Political Barriers. The session itself was well-attended and appeared to hit a nerve for professionals in the audience: How do practicing planners manage the varied interests (and agendas) that come to bear on projects and programs? We asked four professionals to help us answer a number of questions, including:
The professional panel consisted of two veteran City Planners, a long-time Seattle and Puget Sound Region developer, and a senior level manager from one of Seattle's municipal affordable housing corporations:
Each of the panelists had 12 quick minutes to first provide the audience with a summary of their prior planning experience, and then sail into tips and strategies for negotiating political situations. Twelve minutes is not a lot of time to cover this difficult topic; however the panelists did a great job of getting to the heart of the issue, and did indeed provide the audience with tools necessary for successfully and strategically managing 'intense political situations'. Below is a synopsis of the panelists' comments and suggestions, and though these will sound familiar and seem like common sense, are not easy to actually employ - judging from the energy and interest of those in the audience.
The students in the College of Urban Design and Planning at the University of Washington, Seattle, would like to thank the Puget Sound Chapter of the Washington APA for their generous financial support, Nancy Eklund for her oversight and direction in putting together the session, and the professionals that spoke on our panel: Rob Odle, John Rahaim, James Potter, and Tom Phillips. For more information contact Catherine McCoy, UW Masters Candidate, Urban Design and Planning, at mccoyc@u.washington.edu. |
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Scott Kirkpatrick of Sound Transit works with cities to get the most redevelopment bang from their transit links.
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